New Realities in the Budgetary and Tax Sphere in the Context of Structural Transformation of the Russian Economy
https://doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2025-4-69-83
Abstract
Following a period of recovery, the Russian economy has entered a “soft landing”. Production in non-military sectors of production is slowing or declining, while consumer and investment demand is cooling. A decline in oil and gas revenues, driven by lower oil prices, a stronger ruble, and the impact of external sanctions, coupled with an unexpected increase in expenditures, have contributed to a record budget deficit. A fundamental increase in budget-forming taxes is unable to offset the decline in oil and gas revenues, creating risks to fiscal sustainability. The federal budget parameters for 2026 point to a return to fiscal consolidation, but the feasibility of this is exaggerated. The federal budget revenue forecast is based on optimistic assumptions, and expenditure reductions are not guaranteed. The accumulated structural problems of the Russian economy could be exacerbated by new challenges from fiscal policy.
About the Author
I. S. Bukina
Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Bukina Irina S., Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Senior Researcher
32, Nakhimovsky av, Moscow, 117218
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Review
For citations:
Bukina I.S. New Realities in the Budgetary and Tax Sphere in the Context of Structural Transformation of the Russian Economy. Federalism. 2025;30(4):69-83. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2025-4-69-83
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