THE PECULIARITIES OF TAX AND BUDGET POLICY IN 2019—2021

Abstract

Tax and budget policy in recent years has been characterized by tight financial consolidation. On the background of the risks of reducing the volume of oil and gas revenues, including due to the so-called “tax maneuver”, new mandatory payments have been introduced, the fiscal burden on business and the population has increased. Simultaneously budget expenditures are being compressed in real terms. Thus, the recession of 2015—2016 and the weak recovery of growth are enhanced by the implementation of a restraining policy. Draft Federal budget for 2019 and the planning period 2020 and 2021 also carries these trends. The article deals with the provisions, which increase the risks of shortfall in tax revenues both by the Federal budget and the budgets of the subjects of the Federation due to the innovations, laid down in the bill. At the same time, there is excessive caution in predicting the price of oil and, as a consequence, the volume of oil and gas revenues. The analysis of the expenditure part of the Federal budget shows, however, some change of the trend. Despite a modest increase in total spending, expenditures on health, education and infrastructure have increased significantly. Thus, the structure of budget expenditures is changing in favour of expenditures with investment potential. Simultaneously the article shows that the policy of increasing public debt on the background of the planned budget surplus increases the risks of public debt management in the medium and long term period.