Probable Consequences of Permafrost Degradation of the Social Infrastructure
https://doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2022-4-155-167
Abstract
The article proposes an approach to assessing the probable damage from permafrost degradation by the middle of the 21st century for the fixed assets of healthcare and education located in the permafrost zone of the Russian Arctic. The high importance of social infrastructure in the Arctic territories implies the need for priority attention to ensuring its safety and smooth functioning. The lack of publicly available statistical information on the fixed assets value by economy sectors at the municipal level, required to assess potential damages, predetermined the need to solve the problem of developing an appropriate methodology for its assessment. The study showed that under the worst scenario of climate warming by 2050 and subsequent permafrost degradation in the Russian Arctic permafrost zone, the fixed assets of healthcare and education with a total value of about 79 and 162 billion rubles, respectively, can be subjected to destruction and deformation.
About the Author
S. V. Badina
Federal State Budgetary Institute of Higher Education Plekhanov Russian University of Economics;
Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Badina Svetlana V. – Cand. Sc. (Geography), Senior Researcher of the Research Laboratory “Regional Policy and Regional Investment Processes”; Federal State Budgetary Institute of Higher Education Plekhanov Russian University of Economics; Researcher of the Laboratory for Analysis and Forecasting of Climate Risks of Economic Development; Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences
36, Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 117997
47, Nakhimovsky Av., Moscow, 117418
References
1. Anisimov O.A., Streletskii D.A. Geok riologicheskie riski pri taianii mnogoletnemerzlykh gruntov [Geocryological Risks During the Thawing of Permafrost], Arktika XXI vek. Estestvennye nauki [Arktika XXI century. Natural Sciences], 2015, No. 2 (3), pp. 60–74. (In Russ.).
2. Grebenets V.I., Kiziakov A.I., Maslakov A.A., Sokratov S.A., Streleckaya I.D., Tolmanov V.A., Yurov F.D. Vliianie opasnykh kriogennykh protsessov na infrastrukturu gorodov v Arktike [Influence of Dangerous Cryogenic Processes on the Infrastructure of Cities in the Arctic], Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriia 5: Geografiia [Bulletin of the Moscow University. Series 5: Geography], 2022, No. 2, pp. 25–36. (In Russ.).
3. Porfir’ev B.N. Effektivnaia strategiia deistvii v otnoshenii izmenenii klimata i ikh posledstvii dlia ekonomiki Rossii [An Effective Strategy of Action in Relation to Climate Change and Its Consequences for the Russian Economy], Problemy prognozirovaniia [Problems of Forecasting], 2019, No. 3 (174), pp. 3–16. (In Russ.).
4. Porfir’ev B.N., Kattsov V.M. Posledstviia izmenenii klimata v Rossii i adaptatsiia k nim (otsenka i prognoz) [Consequences of Climate Change in Russia and Adaptation to Them (Assessment and Forecast)], Voprosy ekonomiki [Questions of Economics], 2011, Vol. 11, pp. 94–108. (In Russ.).
5. Toropushina E.E. Sotsial’naia infrastruktura kak faktor samorazvitiia territorii rossiiskoi Arktiki [Social Infrastructure as a Factor of Self-Development of the Territory of the Russian Arctic], Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poriadka [North and the Market: the Formation of an Economic Order], 2018, Vol. 5, No. 61, pp. 14–23. (In Russ.).
6. Beliaeva N.B., Tuchkov V.A. Sotsial’naia infrastruktura arkticheskikh gorodov Severnoi Evropy i Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Social Infrastructure of the Arctic Cities of Northern Europe and the Russian Federation], Tekhniko-tekhnologicheskie problemy servisa [Technical and Technological Problems of Service], 2022, No. 3 (61), pp. 110–118. (In Russ.).
7. Veretennikov N.P., Voronina L.V., Grigorishchin A.V. Vliianie demograficheskikh i ekonomicheskikh faktorov na razvitie infrastruktury zdravookhraneniia v arkticheskikh munitsipalitetakh Severnogo makroregiona [Influence of Demographic and Economic Factors on the Development of Healthcare Infrastructure in the Arctic Municipalities of the Northern Macroregion], Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poriadka [North and the Market: the Formation of an Economic Order], 2021, No. 1, pp. 55–67. (In Russ.).
8. Porfir’ev B.N., Eliseev D.O., Streletskii D.A. Ekonomicheskaia otsenka posledstvii degradatsii mnogoletnei merzloty dlia ob”ektov sistemy zdravookhraneniia rossiiskoi Arktiki [Economic Assessment of the Consequences of Permafrost Degradation for Health Care Facilities in the Russian Arctic], Vestnik RAN [Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2021, Vol. 91, No. 12, pp. 1125–1136. (In Russ.).
9. Badina S.V. Estimation of the value of buildings and structures in the context of permafrost degradation: The case of the Russian Arctic, Polar Science, 2021, Vol. 29, pp. 100730.
10. Mel’nikov V.P., Osipov V.I., Brushkov A.V. i dr. Cnizhenie ustoichivosti infrastruktury TEK Rossii v Arktike kak sledstvie povysheniia srednegodovoi temperatury pripoverkhnostnogo sloia kriolitozony [Reducing the Stability of the Infrastructure of the Russian Fuel and Energy Complex in the Arctic as a Result of an Increase in the Average Annual Temperature of the Near-Surface Layer of the Permafrost], Vestnik RAN [Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2022, Vol. 92, No. 4, pp. 303–314. (In Russ.).
11. Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli 2021 [Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators 2021], Federal’naia sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://gks.ru/bgd/regl/b21_14p/Main.htm (accessed 04 December 2022).
12. Melnikov V.P., Osipov V.I., Brouchkov A.V., Falaleeva A. Climate warming and permafrost thaw in the Russian Arctic: potential economic impacts on public infrastructure by 2050, Natural Hazards, 2022, Vol. 112, pp. 231–251.
13. Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli 2019 [Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators 2019], Federal’naia sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://gks.ru/bgd/regl/B19_14p/Main.htm (accessed 04 December 2022).
14. Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli 2020 [Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators 2020], Federal’naia sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://gks.ru/bgd/regl/b20_14p/Main.htm (accessed 04 December 2022).
Review
For citations:
Badina S.V. Probable Consequences of Permafrost Degradation of the Social Infrastructure. Federalism. 2022;27(4):155-167. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2022-4-155-167
Views:
382
Email this article 