Impact of Sanctions and Prospects for Bugetary and Tax Policy in Russia
https://doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2022-3-109-124
Abstract
The implementation of the Russia fiscal policy in 2022 is taking place in the context of severe external sanctions, including the freezing of government foreign assets. As theoretical models say an increase in government spending stimulates output growth but household consumption reduces. At the same time, empirical studies of the impact of sanctions show that losses from the simultaneous application of financial sanctions, asset freezing and trade restrictions could amount to 4.0-5.0% of GDP. The state of the federal budget in the first half of 2022 remained stable due to the growth in oil prices. The growth of additional oil and gas revenues of the federal budget covered the increased non-oil and gas deficit. External sanctions and retaliatory measures from the monetary and financial authorities had a critical impact on the state of the domestic government debt market. The return to early 2022 levels came amid falling trading volumes, with no new government bond issues between late February and August 2022.
About the Author
I. S. Bukina
Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Bukina Irina S., Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Senior Researcher
32, Nakhimovsky Av., Moscow, 117218
References
1. Andolfatto D. Fiscal Multipliers in War and in Peace / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 2010, Vol. 92(2), pp. 121–127.
2. Auerbach A.J., Gorodnichenko Y. Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy // American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2012, Vol. 4 (2), pp. 1–27.
3. Filipenko A., Bazhenova O., Stakanov R. Economic Sanctions: Theory, Policy, Mechanisms // Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 2020, Vol. 6 (2), pp. 69–80.
4. Hufbauer, G.C., Schott, J.J., Elliott, K.A., Oegg, B. Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd ed. Washington, Peterson Institution for International Economics, 2007.
5. Predvaritel'naia otsenka ispolneniia federal'nogo biudzheta za ianvar'-iiun' 2022 goda [Preliminary Assessment of the Execution of the Federal Budget for January-June 2022], Ministerstvo finansov Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-center/?id_4=38025-predvaritelnaya_otsenka_ispolneniya_federalnogo_byudzheta_za_yanvar-iyun_2022_goda (accessed 18 August 2022).
6. Informatsiia o dopolnitel'nykh neftegazovykh dokhodakh federal'nogo biudzheta [Information on Additional Oil and Gas Revenues of the Federal Budget], Ministerstvo finansov Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil/(accessed 18 August 2022).
7. Indeks Mosbirzhi gosudarstvennykh obligatsii tsenovoi [Moscow Exchange Government Bond Price Index], Moskovskaia birzha [Moscow Exchange]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://www.moex.com/ru/index/RGBI/archive/?from=2022-01-01&till=2022-08-30&sort=TRADEDATE&order=asc (accessed 31 August 2022).
8. Krivaia beskuponnoi dokhodnosti gosudarstvennykh obligatsii [Zero-coupon Yield Curve for Government Bonds], Ofitsial'nyi sait Tsentral'nogo banka Rossii [Official Website of the Central Bank of Russia]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/zcyc_params/zcyc/ (accessed 31 August 2022).
Review
For citations:
Bukina I.S. Impact of Sanctions and Prospects for Bugetary and Tax Policy in Russia. Federalism. 2022;27(3):109-124. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2022-3-109-124
Views:
1355
Email this article 