Birth Rate and Peculiarities of Russian Federalism

Abstract

The decline in birth rates is one of the most serious challenges facing the Russian state. Since the mid-2000s, the Russian authorities have pursued an active federal policy aimed at increasing fertility, including the introduction of the maternity capital program, higher child support payments, and the provision of subsidized mortgages and land plots to large families. However, elements of federative policy associated with increasing heterogeneity among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation largely offset these federal efforts. In education, this is reflected in the establishment of a hierarchy of federal, research, and flagship universities; in industry, in the creation of various zones with preferential legal regimes; in culture, in the concentration of performing arts organizations in Moscow and St. Petersburg; and in the social sphere, in fundamentally different levels of social benefits provided to vulnerable population groups across regions. The result is a phenomenon of over-centralization, whereby young people concentrate in the capitals with high housing costs, postponing childbirth indefinitely. Consequently, federal pronatalist measures fail to achieve their intended objectives. This hypothesis was tested using econometric models that included, as significant factors, the share of the population aged 65+, the level of urbanization, housing prices in the primary and secondary markets, regional characteristics, and the maternity capital program. The findings confirm the proposed hypothesis and outline directions for further research.