Russian Fiscal Sphere Under the Influence of External and Internal Factors
https://doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2025-1-127-147
Abstract
The changing external conditions of recent years have led to a transformation of the existing mechanisms that determine the Russian fiscal sphere. The paper shows that since 2022, the budget of the expanded government has become more dependent on internal factors than on parameters related to the global situation. The receipt of oil and gas revenues of the federal budget has come to be influenced not only by the price of oil and the exchange rate, but also by restrictions on oil production caused by both external sanctions and voluntary restrictions. At the same time, the sensitivity of oil and gas revenues to the price of oil has increased. The growth of non-oil and gas revenues partly compensates for the restrictions on the receipt of oil and gas revenues but is largely ensured by the budget impulse. In this regard, an increase in the tax burden on the non-oil and gas sector is seen as an inevitable measure for future budget sustainability. The possibilities of debt financing are limited by the capacity of the domestic market and the monetary policy pursued. At the same time, using the imperfections of the financial market, the state can reduce the cost of servicing the domestic debt.
About the Author
I. S. Bukina
Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
BUKINA Irina S., Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Senior Researcher
32, Nakhimovsky Av., Moscow, 117218
References
1. Kratkaia ezhegodnaia informatsiia ob ispolnenii konsolidirovannogo biudzheta Rossiiskoi Federatsii i gosudarstvennykh vnebiudzhetnykh fondov (mlrd rub.) [Brief Annual Information on the Execution of the Consolidated Budget of the Russian Federation and State Extra-Budgetary Funds (Billion Rubles)], Ofitsial’nyi sait Minfina Rossii [Official Website of the Ministry of Finance of Russia]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/conbud/execute?id_57=93449-kratkaya_ezhegodnaya_informatsiya_ob_ispolnenii_konsolidirovannogo_byudzheta_rossiiskoi_federatsii_i_gosudarstvennykh_vnebyudzhetnykh_fondov_mlrd._rub. (accessed 10 February 2025).
2. Valovoi vnutrennii produkt [Gross Domestic Product], Ofitsial’nyi sait FSGS [Official Website of the Federal State Statistics Service]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/statistics/accounts. (accessed 10 February 2025).
3. Lykova L.N., Bukina I.S. Nalogooblozhenie pribyli v Rossii: formirovanie sovremennoi modeli [Profit taxation in Russia: Formation of a Modern Model]. Moscow, EKSMO, 2010, 782 p. (In Russ.).
4. Bukina I.S., Smirnov A.I. Napravleniia nalogovoi politiki Rossii i vozmozhnost’ snizheniia nalogovoi nagruzki na otechestvennykh proizvoditelei, orientirovannykh na vnutrennii rynok [Directions of Russia’s Tax Policy and the Possibility of Reducing the Tax Burden on Domestic Producers Focused on the Domestic Market], Finansy: teoriia i praktika [Finance: Theory and Practice], 2020, Vol. 24, No. 4, pp. 111–112. (In Russ.).
5. Otchet ob ispolnenii konsolidirovannogo biudzheta RF i biudzhetov gosudarstvennykh vnebiudzhetnykh fondov na 1 ianvaria goda [Report on the Execution of the Consolidated Budget of the Russian Federation and the Budgets of State Extra-Budgetary Funds as of January 1 of The Year], Ofitsial’nyi sait Kaznacheistva Rossii [Official Website of the Treasury of Russia]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://roskazna.gov.ru/ispolneniebyudzhetov/konsolidirovannyj-byudzhet (accessed 10 February 2025).
6. Spravochnaia informatsiia: “Dannye, primeniaemye dlia rascheta naloga na dobychu poleznykh iskopaemykh v otnoshenii nefti i gazovogo kondensata” [Reference Information: “Data Used to Calculate the Mineral Extraction Tax for Oil and Gas Condensate”], SPS Konsul’tantPlius [SPS ConsultantPlus]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_50642/7878e6986f9548d0256bdbb0a819ee666be93965 (accessed 13 February 2025).
7. Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel), U.S. Energy Information Administration. Available at: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M (accessed 13 February 2025).
8. Bukina I.S. Sostoianie rossiiskoi ekonomiki i biudzhetno-nalogovaia politika [The State of the Russian Economy and Fiscal Policy], Rossiia i Tadzhikistan v usloviiakh meniaiushcheisia mirovoi ekonomiki: Sbornik nauchnykh trudov Mezhdunarodnoi rossiiskotadzhikskoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [Russia and Tajikistan in a Changing Global Economy: Proceedings of the International Russian-Tajik Scientific and Practical Conference]. Moscow, 2024, pp. 24–33. (In Russ.).
9. Federal’nyi zakon “O federal’nom biudzhete na 2024 god i planovyi period 2025 i 2026 godov” ot 27 noyabrya 2023 g. № 540-FZ [Federal Law “On the Federal Budget for 2024 and the Planning Period 2025 and 2026” dated November 27, 2023 No. 540- FZ], SPS Konsul’tantPlius [SPS ConsultantPlus]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_462891/ (accessed 13 February 2025).
10. Poiasnitel’naia zapiska k proektu federal’nogo zakona “O federal’nom biudzhete na 2025 god i na planovyi period 2026 i 2027 godov” [Explanatory Note to the Draft Federal Law “On the Federal Budget for 2025 and for the Planning Period of 2026 and 2027”], Sistema obespecheniia zakonodatel’noi deiatel’nosti [System for Supporting Legislative Activity]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://sozd.duma.gov.ru/bill/727320-8 (accessed 16 February 2025).
11. Lykova L.N. O vozmozhnosti vozvrata k progressivnomu podokhodnomu nalogooblozheniiu fizicheskikh lits v Rossii [On the Possibility of Returning to Progressive Income Taxation of Individuals in Russia], Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki Rossiiskoi akademii nauk [Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2013, No. 6, pp. 32–51. (In Russ.).
12. Karavaeva I.V. Podokhodnyi nalog – reguliator politicheskikh protsessov v Rossii [Income Tax as a Regulator of Political Processes in Russia], Vestnik Rossiiskogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta im. G.V. Plekhanova [Bulletin of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics], 2014, No. 3 (69), pp. 3–18. (In Russ.).
13. Vlasov S.A., Deriugina E.B. Fiskal’nye mul’tiplikatory v Rossii [Fiscal Multipliers in Russia], Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii [Journal of the New Economic Association], 2018, No. 2, pp. 104–119. (In Russ.).
14. Akhmed Abu Bakr F.A. Vliianie finansovoi repressii na ekonomicheskii rost: empiricheskii analiz [The Impact of Financial Repression on Economic Growth: an Empirical Analysis], Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriia i praktika [Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice], 2017, Vol. 16, No. 9, pp. 1778–1796. (In Russ.).
15. Pak E.A., Pekarskii S.E. Vneshneekonomicheskie shoki i infliatsiia v usloviiakh finansovoi repressii [External Economic Shocks and Inflation in the Context of Financial Repression], Ekonomicheskaia politika [Economic Policy], 2022, Vol. 17, No. 6, pp. 8–39. (In Russ.).
16. Svedeniia po kreditam nefinansovym organizatsiiam v rubliakh, dollarakh SShA, evro i iuaniakh [Information on Loans to Non-Financial Organizations in Rubles], Bank Rossii [Bank of Russia]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/bank_sector/int_rat (accessed 18 February 2025).
17. Pokazateli rynka zhilishchnogo (ipotechnogo zhilishchnogo) kreditovaniia (v tselom po Rossiiskoi Federatsii) [Indicators of the Housing (Mortgage Housing) Lending Market (for the Russian Federation as a Whole)], Bank Rossii [Bank of Russia]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/bank_sector/mortgage (accessed 18 February 2025).
18. Kliuchevaia stavka Banka Rossii [Key Rate of the Bank of Russia], Bank Rossii [Bank of Russia]. (In Russ.). Available at: https://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/keyrate (accessed 18 February 2025).
19. Sargent T., Wallace N. Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic. Quarterly Review, 1981. Available at: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6592131.pdf (accessed 18 February 2025).
20. Pekarskii S.E. Vzaimodeistvie denezhno-kreditnoi i biudzhetno-nalogovoi politiki i ustoichivost’ gosudarstvennogo dolga. Diss. kand. ekon. nauk [Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policies and Public Debt Sustainability. PhD econ. sci. diss.], Moscow, 2006, 174 p. (In Russ.).
Review
For citations:
Bukina I.S. Russian Fiscal Sphere Under the Influence of External and Internal Factors. Federalism. 2025;30(1):127-147. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2025-1-127-147
Views:
88
Email this article 