Russia’s budget system in 2024. preliminary results and emerging trends

Abstract

The revenues of all components of the Russian budget system showed positive growth rates in January-September 2024. Revenues to the federal budget have increased most significantly, both from oil and gas and non-oil and gas revenues. The pronounced dependence of federal budget revenues on world oil prices remains, provoking the budget execution risks.  The growth rate of revenues of the consolidated (enlarged) budget of the country lagged behind the growth of federal budget revenues, but outpaced the rate of inflation. The excess of last year’s values in real terms occurred both in terms of tax revenues, social insurance premiums and other taxes and fees. Compared to last year, the receipts of practically all taxes have increased. The exception is budget revenues from corporate income tax, which have decreased even by nominal values. Regional budget revenues increased only in nominal terms. Here, against the background of nominal growth of own income, there was an absolute reduction in intergovernmantal transfers. The drop in regional budget revenues from corporate income tax in many regions of the Russian Federation was not offset by an increase in personal income tax revenues. The dynamics of expenditures of the components of the budget system in the first 9 months of the year also outstripped inflation.