The Current State of the Russian Budget System and the Potential for Financing the Federal Budget Deficit

Abstract

For the first time, Russia’s budget system is under large-scale stress in all areas: risks of losing the tax base due to international sanctions, a steady increase in unforeseen expenses, inflation risks, and rising debt servicing costs. In this regard, it is necessary to identify and analyze potential sources of financing the federal budget deficit as the main guarantor of budget stability. The article examines the state of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation and the budgets of state extra-budgetary funds based on the results of the first half of 2024. It is shown that oil and gas revenues remain the main source of revenue growth. Among non-oil and gas revenues, personal income tax and VAT from domestic sales are growing at an accelerated rate. At the same time, the positive dynamics of some sectors of the Russian economy is largely due to budget financing. At the same time, inflation remains above target values, which forces the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to tighten monetary policy. The excess growth of federal budget expenditures and the increase in nominal rates threaten financial stability. In this regard, the article assesses the potential for financing the federal budget deficit in the context of strict borrowing restrictions. Based on the analysis of the state of the domestic federal loan bond market, a conclusion is made about the high risk of a liquidity crisis and the potential for placing domestic debt at the expense of non-bank financial institutions and individuals.